Understanding the 2025 Raleigh and Greater Triangle Rental Market — Key Insights for 2026

What You’ll Learn in This Article

✔️ Why properties took longer to rent in 2025

✔️ How increased supply—not weak demand—shaped the rental landscape

✔️ How Raleigh and Durham performed differently

✔️ What rent trends and vacancy mean for 2026

✔️ Where the strongest opportunities are for investors in the year ahead

✔️ What owners can expect from MasterKey in a competitive rental environment

Triangle Rental Market: A Look Back at 2025 and What Investors Should Expect in 2026

2025 was a transition year for the Raleigh–Durham rental market. Properties took longer to lease, rent growth was modest, and pricing required more precision than in prior years. At the same time, the Triangle remained one of the most resilient rental markets in the country, supported by strong population and job growth.

These two realities can exist at the same time — and understanding why they do is essential for planning ahead.

Why 2025 Felt Weaker, Even Though Demand Stayed Strong

Many owners understandably viewed 2025 as a “soft” year because:

• Properties took longer to rent
• Residents had more negotiating power
• New apartment communities were offering concessions
• Rent increases were minimal

But the slowdown wasn’t caused by falling demand.

2025 wasn’t a demand problem — it was a supply problem.

The Triangle continued to grow quickly — population up nearly 10% since 2020 (Source: Axios analysis of Census Bureau data, 2025). Job creation remained strong, and higher mortgage rates kept many households renting longer.

Renters didn’t go away. But the number of available units — especially new luxury apartments — grew faster than the number of renters.

When supply rises faster than demand:

• Renters spread out across more options
• Absorption slows
• Rent growth flattens
• Even well-located rentals can sit longer
• Condition and pricing matter more than ever

This dynamic created longer vacancy periods and more price sensitivity, even though the underlying market stayed healthy.

A Clear Look Back at 2025

1. Rental Demand Stayed Strong

Throughout 2025, the Triangle held up better than many U.S. metros:

• Raleigh’s median one-bedroom rent rose +3.2% year-over-year (Source: MuckRack roundup of Apartment List data, Aug 2025).
• Studios, one-bedrooms, two-bedrooms, and three-bedrooms all saw 6%–15% half-year increases in Raleigh (Source: Relocity Rental Trends Report, 2025).
• Single-family rentals remained in high demand, supported by families delaying home purchases due to elevated mortgage rates (Source: Zillow Rental Market Forecast, 2025).

Demand wasn’t the issue — renters simply had more options!

2. Supply Temporarily Outpaced Absorption

2025 saw one of the largest surges of new multifamily construction the region has experienced in years:

• Durham’s 1-bedroom median rent fell –12.8% year-over-year...
• Many Class-A multifamily properties began offering concessions...
• Statewide rents were nearly flat by mid-2025...

This influx created a competitive environment and extended leasing timelines.

3. Rent Growth Was Modest But Stable

Nationally, rents flattened, but the Triangle held steady:

• Raleigh saw mild annual increases.
• Durham declines were tied to oversupply.
• The region moved into healthier balance.

Looking Ahead: What Investors Can Expect in 2026

After a year of stabilization, 2026 is shaping up to be more predictable and balanced.

1. Moderate Rent Growth Expected

• Zillow projects 1–3% rent growth for single-family rentals in 2026.

2. Vacancy Likely to Shorten

• Faster leasing timelines
• More consistent absorption
• Better alignment between supply and renter demand
• Strong performance for well-maintained rentals

3. Interest Rates May Improve Late 2026

• Potential mid-6% or high-5% rates
• Unlocks buyer demand
• Improves investor cash flow

4. Continued Opportunities for Investors

• Single-family rentals near RTP, Cary, Apex, Wake Forest
• Value-add multifamily
• Emerging suburban submarkets
• Build-to-rent communities

Bottom Line: 2025 Required Patience. 2026 Rewards Preparation.

The Triangle’s fundamentals remain strong. With supply stabilizing, 2026 is positioned for:

• Modest rent growth
• More predictable leasing timelines
• Stable occupancy
• Strong long-term performance

Owners who focus on condition, pricing, and long-term strategy will be best positioned.